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What's the likelihood that a very significant % of the scientists working on the most closely related research, and with the most do moan-specific background knowledge, would conspire together and lie about their beliefs and their activities to conspire to hide the truth about their views and the state of the scientific probabilities - with none stepping forward to blow the whistle?

The problem with conspiracy theories is always the probabilities. Seems a through Beyesian analysis would have to factor that in.

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